The Development of “Crops Drought”: The result of integrated technology and cross-sector collaboration. A key tool for water management in the digital age.

How beneficial would it be if we could identify and address potential problems before a drought crisis occurs?
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In Thailand, drought is a major natural disaster that affects the economy and society. The agricultural sector, in particular, faces recurring drought conditions and irregular rainfall patterns every year. Currently, the Earth is experiencing climate change, including the effects of El Niño that make drought conditions more severe and more difficult to predict.
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Effective drought management requires advanced technologies, such as space and geoinformatics technology, as important tools for transforming a reactive approach to a proactive one. These technologies can provide accurate and timely forecasting and early warning capabilities while also supporting sustainable adaptation to climate change.
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The Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (Public Organization), or GISTDA, plays a key role in applying space and geoinformatics technology to support various organizations across the country. In particular, disaster management — especially drought management—is one of the issues that greatly affects Thailand’s agricultural sector. In the past, many people may have been familiar with GISTDA’s use of satellite imagery for large-scale monitoring. Currently, GISTDA has advanced beyond the use of large-scale data alone. Instead, its plot-by-plot monitoring assessment capabilities can be used as data-driven evidence for planning and providing targeted assistance to farmers. Through technological collaboration with organizations across all sectors, Thailand can drive itself forward in drought management through its own technology.
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Woranut Chansury, a Senior Geoinformatics Specialist in the Disaster Management Division at GISTDA, explained that over the past 10 years, GISTDA has utilized global drought index data from NOAA to provide an overall assessment of drought conditions across the country. However, the analysis did not extend to local-level monitoring. Currently, GISTDA has developed a plot-by-plot drought risk index in response to the needs of government agencies such as the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. The system can be used as data-driven evidence to assess damage in agricultural areas as an alternative to complement conventional field surveys.
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The initiative proposed by the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives was developed through in-depth research conducted between 2021 and 2023 on plot-by-plot drought risk areas before being expanded through a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) among seven related agencies under five ministries. Afterwards, the research continued to be developed and was published in both domestic and international academic journals. The data demonstrated more than 80% accuracy in assessing crop damage across four major crops: rice, corn, cassava, and sugarcane. The research mentioned above involved an in-depth analysis plot-by-plot in 6 pilot provinces—Kamphaeng Phet, Nakhon Ratchasima, Surin, Uthai Thani, Nakhon Sawan, and Roi Et, which were identified by the Department of Agricultural Extension as the provinces with the highest number of registered drought compensation cases between 2015 and 2022.
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Currently, the research has been expanded to evaluate drought risk areas nationwide. It includes an in-depth analysis of up to 10 provinces to validate data and calibrate models using field-based monitoring equipment. In addition to the four major economic crops, the system can also be used to assess fruit orchards , including durian.
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Drought analysis is not based only on rainfall. Instead, it involves multiple contributing factors. GISTDA has studied additional factors that affect drought in both physical and ecosystem dimensions before developing the analytical model. The analysis focuses on eight key factors in three main groups. The first group is water and atmospheric dynamics, which examines rainfall as the primary water source—including its quantity, spatial distribution, and duration of dry periods. It also considers evaporation, which increases plant water demand and affects water availability for growth, as well as groundwater as a reserve water source. All three of these factors can be monitored using satellite technology.
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The second group of factors relates to physical land characteristics, including soil type, which affects water absorption capacity. It also includes land use characteristics, such as urban and forested areas, as well as whether the area is located inside or outside irrigation zones, which are associated with water allocation patterns and help indicate the risk of water scarcity. The third focuses on:
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The status of crops and soil is assessed using soil moisture factors and Vegetation Health Index (VHI) data. These three groups encompass eight key factors that contribute to drought risk assessment. Ultimately, the system generates drought prediction outputs, including crop condition and impact assessment results.
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Technology is a key factor in management in the digital era. GISTDA does not rely only on satellite imagery; instead, it uses data from various technologies. These technologies can be grouped into three main categories. The first is satellite technology, which provides comprehensive and continuous spatial coverage and can detect wavelengths beyond the visible spectrum eye, such as thermal infrared, for assessing crop conditions and severity. The second category is ground-based sensor technology, which uses IoT-based automatic data transmission for calibration with satellite observations. In this component, the system is applied in two parts: the GISTDA processing system and data integration via API with other organizations. The third category is AI- and machine learning-based systems, which support drought analysis by building mathematical models. These systems can integrate and interpret various types of satellites, certain satellite limitations, and process the data for forecasting purposes.
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The Crops Drought system is designed to monitor crop water use and provide in-depth, plot-by-plot analysis of drought risk areas. Its key feature is drought monitoring, which enables users to review both current conditions and historical data spanning more than 20 years. This long-term dataset supports analysis and forecasting capabilities, including drought prediction of up to six months in advance. The system provides monthly reports for farmers and government agencies, helping them understand future trends and make timely decisions for agricultural planning and cultivation.
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GISTDA is not an agency directly responsible for water management. However, it provides supporting data to define risk areas for various agencies to support decision-making processes. These include the Department of Agricultural Extension, which uses the data to identify damaged areas for targeted compensation; the Royal Irrigation Department, which uses it to support decision-making on water allocation and release based on area-specific needs; and the National Water Resources Office (NWRO), which uses it as supporting data for determining measures and declaration of drought-affected areas at the policy level. Farmers can use the information to crop planting and water management, especially in areas outside irrigation zones where water resources are limited, and rainfall remains the primary source of water.
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Regarding Thailand’s drought outlook for 2026 to 2027, monitoring data and models from international agencies such as NOAA indicate that Thailand is likely to be significantly influenced by El Niño conditions in 2026, with potential impacts continuing into 2027. Based on satellite data collected over the past five years, we may face the most severe drought in a decade, especially in 2027. If a significant dry spell occurs during this year's rainy season (June-August), it would further confirm the model's accuracy and indicate that El Niño conditions are indeed severe.
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Furthermore, climate change and shifts in wind and monsoon patterns mean that the impact of this drought may no longer be confined to the northeastern region as in the past but is likely to spread to the central and southern regions, as well as irrigated areas that have not previously experienced severe drought conditions.
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The evolution of GISTDA in the application of space technology in drought management can be summarized into four eras. The first era was the era of dependence, when Thailand lacked its own satellite technology and relied primarily on data and models from international sources to lay the foundation for national innovation. The second era was the era of knowledge creation, where international-standard knowledge and models began to be applied to the Thai context. Although still largely imitative, this marked a crucial step towards learning and developing the capacity to generate data and knowledge independently.
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The third era is the era of automated processing, which marks the transition from human interpretation of satellite imagery to the development of automated processing systems that streamline workflows and reduce operational complexity and human resource requirements. The fourth era, which represents the current stage, is the proactive intelligence era, which focuses on highly accurate, proactive management at the plot level. This involves integrating advanced technologies such as AI, machine learning, and statistical data to build predictive models capable of forecasting conditions up to six months in advance. Furthermore, it includes the development of local networks to help support data validation by integrating observations with sensors installed in agricultural areas.
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Looking ahead, GISTDA aims to advance toward the fifth era, the era of digital twin and virtual reality technologies, to support the full digital transformation of the agricultural sector. The focus will be on establishing a water balance system to reduce inequalities in access to water resources and to integrate the environmental dimension into agricultural management and decision-making.
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Enhancing drought management through GISTDA’s application of space technology, along with integrating technology and cross-sector collaboration, will not only help reduce economic and social impacts but also strengthen resilience among farmers and the communities, enabling them to adapt and sustainably address the challenges of climate change.