The Carbon Credit Forecasting System

The Carbon Credit Forecasting System,

a new feature of Carbon Atlas, is designed for users who want to understand its value before making an investment.

   In the context of global warming, carbon credits are one of the most significant mechanisms for promoting the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions released into the atmosphere. Transforming such efforts into income or business value creates a motivation to protect natural resources and the environment sustainably.

     Currently, Thailand’s carbon credit market is considered a voluntary market that is still in its early stages and is attracting interest from other organizations. It is designed to support government policies and organizations' sustainability goals. Although Thailand’s carbon credit market is showing growth, it has limitations due to its voluntary nature and lack of legal incentives. Furthermore, market uncertainty, volatile trading behaviors, and a lack of knowledge and understanding can make participation in complex markets with high development costs less cost-effective for small projects.

     However, a significant question that many people, especially new entrepreneurs, are interested in is whether they can earn a profit from carbon credit sales. It is important to understand its value before investing, and this program aims to answer that question. The Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA) has applied space technology to evaluate carbon storage in the forestry and agricultural sectors. One of the carbon credit service providers in Thailand, the Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (TGO), uses satellite imagery combined with AI verification for this purpose.

     Currently, efforts are being made to support decision-making and collaborative actions for Thailand’s carbon credit initiatives. GISTDA developed the “Carbon Atlas” for evaluating carbon credits in the forestry and agriculture sectors. The platform is based on remote sensing data and AI, covering evergreen forests, mixed deciduous forests, dry dipterocarp forests, mangrove forests, and rubber plantations. It includes two significant datasets collected by GISTDA in 2022 and 2024.

     The first dataset represents green areas and trees that absorb carbon dioxide, based on satellite imagery data from 2024. Thailand has green areas covering 26.72 million hectare, approximately 52% of the country, with urban green areas covering 2.08 million hectare. Another dataset represents carbon storage, indicating the amount of greenhouse gases absorbed from the atmosphere.

     These two datasets are currently used primarily by government agencies and the private sector. In terms of green areas, the government utilizes the data to plan and manage resources in accordance with national strategies. The relevant agencies currently use GISTDA’s 2-meter resolution satellite imagery to analyze and compare it with existing maps, ensuring data accuracy. Furthermore, information on green areas can be applied in urban management for planning and formulating policies on increasing or decreasing urban green spaces, depending on the responsibility of each agency.

     In terms of carbon storage, government agencies and businesses are currently applying data in practical ways, and some agencies have begun using GISTDA’s services to evaluate carbon storage in forestry and agricultural areas where satellite imagery allows for analysis.

     Since the Carbon Atlas platform was launched to provide carbon credit evaluation services, GISTDA became aware that many interested individuals want to participate in the carbon credit market. Most people have questions regarding costs and potential returns before making investment decisions. This feedback motivated the development of a platform that allows users to explore carbon credit amounts in the areas they are interested in.

     This platform is designed to help landowners determine the optimal time to sell carbon credits over a 3–5 year period to maximize profit. It achieves this by analyzing factors such as land type, area size, clustering characteristics, and expected sales periods. The system calculates future sales prices, costs, and potential profits using Thai market prices, which range from approximately 500 to 3,000 baht per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent. Upon completion, this program will be integrated into the Carbon Atlas platform.

Mr. Khatiwich explained that GISTDA’s services highlight three main areas:

1. The utilization of high-quality satellite imagery for carbon storage evaluation.
2. The accurate and efficient use of technologies like LiDAR to measure tree growth in sample plots.
3. The AI-driven carbon evaluation model developed by GISTDA, which can measure five types of data across areas in Thailand.

     In the future, in addition to improving the Carbon Atlas platform by adding carbon credit exploration features in 2026, GISTDA plans to further utilize additional satellite data to obtain more accurate results. GeoSLAM portable 3D scanners, which are capable of collecting data four times faster than traditional 3D scanners, are also being used to improve measurement efficiency.

     Among the many cutting-edge technologies available at various organizations, several are currently being applied to carbon credit evaluation. What is the main service that GISTDA provides using space technology? GISTDA plans to effectively utilize the benefits of data on green areas, carbon storage, and satellite imagery. With a 50-year history, GISTDA also has expertise in biological analysis.

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